Submitted: The Two Sides Team December 27, 2012

A comprehensive U.S. Forest Service report released today examines the ways expanding populations, increased urbanization,and changing land-use patterns could profoundly impact natural resources, including water supplies, nationwide during the next 50 years. Significantly, the study shows the potential for significant loss of privately-owned forests to development and fragmentation, which could substantially reduce benefits from forests that the public now enjoys including clean water, wildlife habitat, forest products and others.
December 18 2012

USDA Forest Service Press Release

A comprehensive U.S. Forest Service report
released today examines the ways expanding populations, increased
urbanization, and changing land-use patterns could profoundly impact
natural resources, including water supplies, nationwide during the next
50 years. Significantly, the study shows the potential for
significant loss of privately-owned forests to development and
fragmentation, which could substantially reduce benefits from forests
that the public now enjoys including clean water, wildlife habitat,
forest products and others.

“We should all be concerned by the projected decline in
our nation’s forests and the corresponding loss of the many critical
services they provide such as clean drinking water, wildlife habitat,
carbon sequestration, wood products and outdoor recreation,” said
Agriculture Under Secretary Harris Sherman. “Today’s report offers a
sobering perspective on what is at stake and the need to maintain our
commitment to conserve these critical assets.” U.S Forest Service
scientists and partners at universities, non-profits and other
agencies found urban and developed land areas in the U.S. will increase
41 percent by 2060. Forested areas will be most impacted by this
growth, with losses ranging from 16 to 34 million acres in the lower 48
states. The study also examines the effect of climate change on
forests and the services forests provide.

Most importantly, over the long-term, climate change
could have significant effects on water availability, making the US
potentially more vulnerable to water shortages, especially in the
Southwest and Great Plains. Population growth in more arid regions will
require more drinking water. Recent trends in agricultural irrigation
and land­scaping techniques also will boost water demands. “Our nation’s forests and grasslands are facing
significant challenges. This assessment strengthens our commitment to
accelerate restoration efforts that will improve forest resiliency and
conservation of vitally important natural resources,” said U.S. Forest
Service Chief Tom Tidwell. The assessment’s projections are influenced by a set of
scenarios with varying assumptions about U.S. population and economic
growth, global population and economic growth, global wood energy
consumption and U.S. land use change from 2010 to 2060. Using those
scenarios, the report forecasts the following key trends: Forest areas will decline as a result of development,
particularly in the South, where population is projected to grow the
most; Timber prices are expected to remain relatively flat; Rangeland area is expected to continue its slow
decline but rangeland productivity is stable with forage sufficient to
meet expected livestock grazing demands; Biodiversity may continue to erode because projected loss of forestland will impact the variety of forest species; and recreation use is expected to trend upward.

Additionally, the report stresses the need to develop
forest and rangeland policies, which are flexible enough to be
effective under a wide range of future socioeconomic and ecological
conditions such as climate change. The Forest and Rangelands Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 requires the Forest Service to produce an assessment of natural resource trends every 10 years. The mission of the Forest Service is to sustain the
health, diversity, and productivity of the nation’s forests and
grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations. The
agency manages 193 million acres of public land, provides assistance to
state and private landowners, and maintains the largest forestry
research organization in the world. Forest Service lands contribute
more than $13 billion to the economy each year through visitor spending
alone. Those same lands provide 20 percent of the nation’s clean water
supply, a value estimated at $27 billion per year.

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