Megatrends Poised to Reshape North American Packaging

Submitted: Two Sides North America April 30, 2026

Looking to the future, what lies in store for the packaging industry? The quickly changing landscape of geopolitics and trade, along with the continued growth of e-commerce and ongoing sustainability expectations, indicate that two materials will come out as clear winners— paper and flexible plastics. 

That’s according to Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) “Flexible by Design: The New Playbook for Packaging in North America.” They ran extensive quantitative modeling of product categories and packaging types to map what they see as growing megatrends. They believe packaging industry leaders will be the ones that future-proof their portfolios, build more agile and resilient supply chains, get smarter about pricing, and push sustainable innovation forward—ideally by collaborating across the value chain, not going it alone.

The Shifting Landscape of Megatrends

BCG researchers identified what they call “major megatrends” —driven by long-term economic and structural shifts, they believe these shifts will be reshaping North America’s packaging industry over the next five to ten years. Together, the megatrends will ultimately change not just what packaging is made of, but how companies think about innovation. While cost and performance still matter, they no longer are the only factors in the decision. The next packaging choices will be shaped by a much more complicated mix of forces already in play, some of which may seem contradictory: 

• Global Trade 
  Rules are shifting, and the packaging industry is feeling it. While tariff outcomes are still evolving, one thing is clear: their impact on global trade—and on packaging costs—will be lasting. As protectionism and regionalization continue to grow, companies are being forced to rethink how and where they source materials. That’s pushing many to diversify suppliers, swap out substrates, and revisit long-standing packaging choices.

• Convenience and Mobility
  Convenience is still king for North American consumers. Busier, more mobile lifestyles are driving demand for packaging that’s easy to use and easy to take on the go; think resealable packs, single-serve formats, and ready-to-use products. At the same time, unit sizes are getting smaller, which often means more packaging overall, even as individual packages shrink.

• E-commerce
  As online shopping keeps growing, packaging has to do double duty. It needs to protect products through shipping while also acting as part of the brand experience when the box shows up at the door. That’s fueling demand for packaging that’s simpler, sturdier, and more sustainable, cutting down on excess materials while still delivering a great unboxing experience.

• Health and Wellness
  Health-conscious consumers are changing what they buy, favoring options that feel fresher and better for them. That shift is influencing packaging,too. Formats need to preserve freshness and product integrity—especially for food, supplements, and cosmetics—while avoiding materials that consumers associate with potential health risks, like microplastics. The result: growing demand for stronger barrier performance and safer-perceived materials.

• Sustainability
  Sustainability continues to be a top priority for global brands. In Europe and other regions, regulation and infrastructure investments are driving rapid change. In the US, progress is more fragmented but still gaining momentum, led by state-level legislation, rising consumer awareness, and innovation in recyclable mono-materials and bio-based composites. Across substrates, one trend stands out:  increased use of post-consumer recycled content. The real challenge for packaging players is making all of this work at scale—without sacrificing performance or blowing up costs. 

Paper vs. Plastic

How are these megatrends actually changing real-world packaging decisions? To find out, BCG built quantitative models across more than 350 product categories and 50 packaging formats in eight end markets. They paired that analysis with hands-on expertise in climate policy and tariff legislation to see how each trend would play out across the major packaging materials. 

The big takeaway: paper and flexible plastic come out ahead. While sustainability concerns continue to put pressure on plastic, cost and performance keeps it a strong paper competitor. For paper, the key barrier continues to be innovation; can the industry scale cost-competitive barrier technologies? If it proves doable, paper adoption could potentially accelerate, especially in food and beverage. 

Zooming out to a bird’s-eye view, a few clear patterns start to emerge. The growing concern by consumers regarding microplastic pollution and plastic’s low circularity rates is a significant contributor; over time, they predict that paper will steadily take shares from plastic. 

Regulation adds another layer of complexity. North America and Europe are moving in very different directions. The EU’s new Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) sets strict rules around recyclability, biodegradability, recycled content, and producer responsibility. In the US, by contrast, federal action has been slow and broad EU-style regulation looks unlikely. Instead, they believe most momentum will continue to originate from individual states, creating a more fragmented and less predictable regulatory landscape. 

 To read more, go to BCG.com > Publications > 2025 > New Playbook for Packaging in North America or click HERE

About Two Sides North America

Two Sides North America (TSNA) is a member-supported non-profit advocacy organization for the graphic communications, paper, and paper-based packaging industries. Two Sides North America works to dispel common environmental misconceptions and to inspire and inform businesses and consumers with engaging, factual information about the environmental sustainability and value of print, paper, and paper-based packaging. They are the only group that works to dispel and pursue the removal of Greenwashing language used by companies and organizations in North America.

To learn more about Two Sides North America and how to become a member, please visit twosidesna.org.

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